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3.7. What are conditional claims and how do they work?

A conditional claim is a claim whose value depends on two separate events. It is normally (always?) composed of two claims (which trade as regular unconditional claims): an underlying claim, and a claim whose results will be evaluated only if the underlying claim is true or only if it is false.

Conditional claims are bought and sold with contracts of the underlying claim rather than with cash. Prices are quoted in units of the underlying symbol unless otherwise noted (at least it should work that way; I'm not sure whether it is consistent about it yet).

If you don't hold the appropriate contracts of the underlying claim when you trade a conditonal claim, the system will create them as needed by purchasing pairs (units of YES and NO contracts) of the underlying claim.

If the underlying claim is settled before the dependent claim, contracts of the conditional claim which are conditioned on the winning side of the underlying claim are converted into unconditional claims. Conditional claims conditioned on the losing side become worthless, and those contracts will disappear. For example, if X is judged true, Y|X contracts become Y contracts, and Y~X contracts become worthless.

While this approach may make it harder to understand what will happen when you trade a conditional claim than with claims of the form "event X happens and event Y happens", it makes it easier to relate the prices to probabilities of individual events.

Let's suppose we have a claim GORE that says Al Gore will be elected president, a claim WAR that says U.S. soldiers will die in combat, and conditional claims WAR|GORE and WAR~GORE. Here are examples of what would happen if you start without any holdings in any of these claims, and buy or sell one of the conditional claims at a price of 0.65 GORE contracts or NOT GORE contracts.

ActionNew GORE holdingsChange in cash holdingsProfit/Loss (in Quatloos) from trade for different settlements
 Gore electedGore not elected
Buy 1 WAR|GORE-0.65 GORE (0.65 GORE NOs)-0.65 Quatloos soldiers die in combat+0.350
soldiers don't die in combat-0.650
Sell 1 WAR|GORE0.35 GORE-0.35 Quatloos soldiers die in combat-0.350
soldiers don't die in combat+0.650
Buy 1 WAR~GORE0.65 GORE-0.65 Quatloos soldiers die in combat0+0.35
soldiers don't die in combat0-0.65
Sell 1 WAR~GORE-0.35 GORE (0.35 GORE NOs)-0.35 Quatloos soldiers die in combat0-0.35
soldiers don't die in combat0+0.65

Currently claims can only be conditional on unconditional Boolean claims. I don't know whether support will be added for claims conditional on non-Boolean claim types or claims conditional on conditional claims.


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